| 摘要: |
| 本文在分析中国棉花进口贸易变化的基础上，运用分位数回归方法，利用1978~2013年时间序列数据，对中国棉花虚拟土地资源进口的影响因素进行研究。结果得出:国内棉花需求对棉花虚拟土地资源进口有推动作用，短期尤为明显，但在85%分位点上不显著；棉花播种面积和单产抑制了中国棉花虚拟土地资源的进口；市场化改革在65%和85%分位点上显著，并促进了棉花虚拟土地资源进口；国际经济关系在85%分位点上显著，有助于棉花虚拟土地资源的进口。 |
| 关键词: 棉花 进口 虚拟土地资源进口 影响因素 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(项目编号:12BJY102)；新疆维吾尔自治区产学研联合培养研究生示范基地资助项目(项目编号:xjaucxy-yjs-20131038)。 |
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| An Analysis of Factors Influencing the Importation of Cotton Virtual Land Resources in China |
| GE Qiu-ying,CAO Chong |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the analysis of China’s cotton importation and quantile regression method, this paper studies the factors influencing the importation of China’s cotton virtual land resources with time series data from 1978 to 2013. The study reaches the following conclusions: the domestic demand of cotton plays a promoting role in the importation of cotton virtual land resources, it’s significant especially in the short run, but it’s not significant when above 85%; cotton planting area and per unit yield constraint the importation of cotton virtual land resources; market-oriented reform is significant in 65% and 85%, but promotes the importation of cotton virtual land resources; international economic relations is significant when above 85%, which contributes to the importation of cotton virtual land resources. |
| Key words: cotton importation virtual land resources influencing factors |
