| 摘要: |
| 人民币国际化和中国资本项目开放之间存在紧密的联系。人民币国际化战略和资本项目开放政策具有交叉性，人民币国际化程度和资本项目开放水平具有趋同性，人民币国际化通过倒逼资本项目开放、增加资本项目开放收益、降低资本项目开放风险、与资本项目开放内涵存在替代性和重合性等机制助推资本项目开放。构建 TVP--SV--VAR模型实证检验后发现，人民币国际化对资本项目开放的延时影响大于即期影响，且影响程度因宏观经济形势变化呈现差异。基于人民币国际化和资本项目开放“一体两面”视角，结合货币替代理论，提出在人民币发挥全球贸易结算货币、全球投融资货币、全球金融外汇交易货币和全球储备货币职能的过程中，逐步实现人民币资本项目开放的可行性路径和保障举措，以期为推进人民币国际化和中国资本项目开放提供思路借鉴与视角参考。 |
| 关键词: 人民币国际化 资本项目开放 机制分析 可行性路径探索 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目: |
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| Mechanism and Path of RMB Internationalization Boosting Capital Account Opening |
| YE Yafei |
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| Abstract: |
| There is a close connection and logical relationship between RMB internationalization and capital account opening. Research shows that the internationalization strategy of RMB and the opening policy of the capital account feature an intersection, and the internationalization degree of RMB and the opening level of the capital account feature a convergence, RMB internationalization will promote the opening of capital accounts through many mechanisms,such as forcing capital account opening, increasing capital account opening benefits, reducing capital account opening risks, replacing and overlapping capital project opening. This paper constructs a TVP-SV-VAR model for empirical testing and shows that the delayed impact of RMB internationalization on capital account opening is greater than the immediate impact, and the degree of impact varies with changes in the macroeconomic situation.Based on the development perspective of“one body, two sides”of RMB internationalization and capital account opening, combined with currency substitution theory,this paper explores and proposes a feasible path and safeguard measures to gradually realize the opening of the RMB capital account in the process of using the RMB as a global trade settlement currency, a global investment financing currency, a global financial foreign exchange transaction currency, and a global reserve currency.It is expected to provide new ideas and perspectives for advancing the internationalization of the RMB and the opening of the capital account. |
| Key words: RMB internationalization capital account opening mechanism analysis feasibility path |
